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No Tomorrow For Los Angeles

By Adam Hoff
for HOOPSADDICT.com

Published: June 17, 2008

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The Los Angeles Lakers won Game 5 of the NBA Finals Sunday night to cut the Boston Celtics’ lead to 3-2 and send the series back to Boston. Los Angeles didn’t play perfectly and they weren’t even all that impressive in the must-win contest, so the sentiment from most Lakers fans that I know went something like this: “I’m just glad we didn’t let them close us out at home – this gives us something to build on for next year.”

Next year? What about being two games away from a title right now?

But that’s the thing with this particular Lakers team: for all the success they are enjoying in the here and now, one roaming eye remains on the years to come. There is good reason for this, as Andrew Bynum has been unable to participate in this postseason run and looms as a large presence on future playoff teams. Not only that, but the Lakers have many young players that will continue to get better, they should have Trevor Ariza back at full strength next season, and they will have a training camp and preseason to fully integrate their many pieces. So I understand the “rosy future” outlook and I believe that Lakers fans are right to be extremely optimistic about the team’s chances in the years to come. That said, to bank on the possibility of future titles as a way of taking the pressure off of the current Finals is ridiculous.

If anything, this is the year that the Lakers should be trying to secure a title. For all the talk of the mighty Western Conference this season, there was actually a dearth of true contenders at the top. The Rockets lost Yao Ming. The Suns lost their identity. The Hornets weren’t quite ready for prime time. The Spurs were clearly staggering to the finish line under the weight of an aging supporting cast and balky Manu Ginobili ankle. In fact, the only team outside of the Lakers that had the look and feel of a Finalist was Utah, but unfortunately for the Jazz they got a miserable postseason performance from Carlos Boozer and drew Los Angeles in the second round. In hindsight, the Lakers were far better than any other team in the West. Of course, Boston is proving that it’s not just about the West this season. And so there is more to the equation than just conference dominance in 2008. If the Lakers lose at this stage, it will have been to a better team … even if that team is from the Eastern Conference. (Ducking the bolt of lightning.)

Again though, the Lakers and their fans should not accept “forcing the series back to Boston” as a moral victory. Because even though Boston might be better, this Finals still represents the Lakers’ best chance of winning. (Confused yet?)

Let’s work through the steps. Winning in the NBA Finals requires four victories over a single opponent. Los Angeles has two such victories. As Kobe Bryant said after Game 5, if you could enter a season knowing that you had to win two road games for a ring, you would take that arrangement and run. It won’t be easy (nor has it ever been done before), but it’s easier than the alternative – getting there in the first place. Lest we forget, reaching the NBA Finals requires winning 12 games against three (often disparate) opponents. If a team plays in a particularly difficult conference, with multiple title contenders (see: Dallas, Phoenix, and San Antonio in 2006), just getting to the Finals is a journey of epic proportions. And, for the Future Lakers, therein lies the rub.

For all the potential that this Los Angeles team has and for all the logical ways that they will improve in the years to come, one important fact is being overlooked by analysts and fans alike – other teams will get better as well. And that’s assuming perfect health, integration, improvement and circumstances for the Lakers themselves.

Consider the teams that loom large in the West for the next several seasons:

San Antonio Spurs. I’m the ringleader for the “NBA Fans Who Are Tired of the Spurs” movement, but there is no way you can count these guys out. Duncan is just two years older than Kobe and Ginobili is just a year Bryant’s senior. I point that out only because people seem to believe that Bryant will play at his current level for year and years while they call Duncan “old” and Ginobili “worn out.” A little inconsistent, no? Now, I’ll admit that much of San Antonio’s supporting cast is ready to check into Shady Acres for their twilight years, but that just means that the Spurs’ uber-savvy front office has a chance to load up on cheap rookies, D-League hustlers, stashed-away Europeans, and other gems that will buttress the big three with hustle, defense and super-secret fouling (a Spurs specialty). Oh, and Tony Parker is young, awesome, and only getting better – even if he has a bad habit of feigning near death every time he falls down. Sorry if my bitterness toward the Spurs crept into this breakdown, but I hope that the main point came through – San Antonio’s not going anywhere. Unfortunately.

Utah Jazz. The difference between the Jazz and Lakers is pretty negligible. Bynum will, of course, bring Los Angeles closer to equilibrium on the boards, but the insertion of the big man will move Odom down to small forward. Will he have the same speed advantage over Andrei Kirilenko that he enjoyed over Carlos Boozer? And speaking of Boozer, it is hard to imagine that he could play as poorly as he did this year (although not as hard as it is to imagine Derek Fisher playing as well as he did). Plus, this team has the flexibility to move some pieces around and get even better.

Houston Rockets. No one is talking about Houston as a title contender next year, but with Yao back (well, for 50 games at least) in the fold, the Rockets will be a tough draw. And don’t forget that Shane Battier has probably supplanted Bruce Bowen as the best Kobe Bryant defender on the planet.

New Orleans Hornets. Los Angeles has no one to guard Chris Paul. Fact.

Portland Trail Blazers. This is the rising Western Conference power that should be giving Los Angeles the greatest sense of urgency. Portland is loaded in all the same areas as the Lakers – they have size and skill down low with LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden (with Joel Pryzbilla, Channing Frye and Travis Outlaw off the bench), an elite playmaker in Brandon Roy, and now they even have their own Ginobili Light off the bench in Rudy Fernandez. Of even greater concern to the Lakers is that Portland also has the same weak spots (point guard and small forward) … but with far more cap flexibility to address them. Both teams have a number of assets to use in trades and owners willing to lay out the cash, so this rivalry/arms race could come down to cap flexibility and front office IQ. Do you want to bet against Portland on that one?

I think you get the idea at this point and we haven’t even considered the (remote) possibility that Phoenix or Dallas will turn it around or that Golden State will make a big move or even that Denver will round into shape. The argument here is that if you thought the West was loaded this year, just wait a few months. The Lakers had a virtual cake walk to get to the Finals this season and even though they ran into a tough opponent in Boston, that is a lot better than getting no opponent.

Not only that, but the history books are littered with rising “dynasties” that lost in the Finals, thought they could chalk it up as a learning experience, and then never returned. I’m thinking of the 1992 Blazers, 1993 Suns, 1995 Magic, 1996 Sonics, and 2006 Mavericks in particular.

Sometimes, a Finals loss isn’t the precursor to future greatness. Sometimes it’s just second place.

All of which is why the Lakers must go to Boston and do everything possible to take the trophy back to Los Angeles. The Celtics are banged up, dealing with matchup problems, and playing with the knowledge that they let a golden opportunity to close out the Finals slip away. Will that be enough to allow the Lakers to come back? No one knows. But I do know one thing – if Los Angeles is banking on the future, then they’ve already lost.

Adam Hoff is the author of the NBA blog Section F Sports and the upcoming book The Football Uncylopedia.

Photo Credit: Icon Sports Media


2 Comments on "No Tomorrow For Los Angeles"

  1. Austin Kent on Tue, 17th Jun 2008 2:57 am 

    Excellent column Adam, it really puts everything in perspective. Even with the Lakers’ promising future, you have doubt the odds that they’ll be back in this position any time soon.

  2. Brandon on Wed, 18th Jun 2008 3:25 am 

    Right on about the Lakers pinning their hopes to Bynum. Now, I’ll admit I was impressed with the kid early this season, but let’s not get carried away. 13 points and 10 boards for a few weeks does not equal Bynum becoming the second coming of Wilt Chamberlain. Plus, he was supposed to be back from knee surgery several weeks ago. He’s not. Isn’t anyone else a bit concerned by that?





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