Casting Playoff Archetypes
As the postseason inches ever closer, NBA fans everywhere are taking part in the standard rites of spring: breaking down their team’s playoffs odds, analyzing favorable player matches, and generally trying to assess the cast of characters they will become so very familiar with over the next two months.
We fans are preparing for the operatic, Passion-play-like narrative that unfolds every postseason, and we will all spend more hours than we’d like to admit scrutinizing that narrative in the weeks ahead.
Our preparation is made somewhat easier by using shorthand groupings of team archetypes – even in a world of NBA League Pass, only the most dedicate among us can offer up truly well-researched, well-informed appraisals of each and every team.
Cliches, formulas, or just hackneyed armchair categorization tend to win the day because they are quick, simple, and rooted in at least some merit.
Most obviously, every postseason has a “Defending Champion”, out to repeat their success for a year ago. This team always has the most to lose, and always has the largest target on their backs.
This year this part is played by the Lakers, who seek to vindicate their title from a year ago when their rival, the Boston Celtics, were not healthy. Until they are eliminated from the scene, the team in the role of defending champ is the league’s chief importance, and fittingly the bulk of the league’s narrative will point back to them. To win a title, you will have to successfully go through Los Angeles, and we can expect the Lakers to fulfill their (familiar) role of reigning monarch well.
The second role we are most familiar with is that of the upstart, the team that is dubbed (ad nauseam sometimes) as “The Team No One Wants to Play”. There is a long history of this particular archetype causing trouble in at least the first round of the playoffs, although they almost never make a serious run towards a title.
Generally this is a young, athletic, exciting team that has at least one superstar-in-waiting that has yet to resonate with the national audience due to lack of exposure. Often this team will come into the playoffs riding an incredibly successful second half of the regular season, or at least post-All-Star game run, that has propelled them into the tier of possible contenders.
The team filling this particular part typically is able to throw a upset victory in the first round before bowing out valiantly, hinting at greater things to come. This can go both ways though. In years past we have seen Denver play this part exceptional well and then continue to build on the momentum and experience gained to eventually reach the Conference Finals. Conversely, we have seen Chicago play the part of young-upstart, until they unraveled the next season under increased expectations. Being dubbed “The Team No One Wants to Play” is not always the blessing it seems.
This particular spring we have two candidates for this role. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the most obvious choice for the part: they have a rising superstar ready to bring his talents to the world’s attention; they are young, athletic and fun to watch; they have been on fire throughout the second half of the season; they are fearless; and they seem built for prolonged and meaningful excellence.
The second contender vying for the position is the team with undoubtedly the best marketing slogan going…Team “Fear the Deer” themselves, the Milwaukee Bucks, who have arguably been the second best team in the league since the All-Star break. The Bucks too have young talent at their core in Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut, and have a full catalog of role players ready and capable to contribute to a meaningful run this spring.
In what is perhaps a paradoxical reality, the Thunder are the team between these two more likely to achieve sustained success in the years ahead, but the Bucks may have a better chance of making a post-season run this year. Milwaukee fills all of the “Team No One Wants To Play” definitions for this year, but due in part to the age of their role players and the history of their coach wearing on players, they may not be back in this spot again soon. Look for them to make a serious push to usurp the Celtics in the first round.
The third character we see most often in the playoffs is that of the aging veteran warhorses, just about on their way out as a serious contender but ready to make one final defiant push.
This year that position is fulfilled by San Antonio. The Spurs represent the NBA’s aging monarchy, and in many ways their decline this year is a fitting farewell to the last decade since it was one they owned. They simply do not have the legs or the healthy bodies to make a deep run into this year’s post season, and look more and more like they will bow out in the first round. How they reload remains to be seen, but if nothing else we as fans should be appreciative of the dominance they have given us for the past ten-plus seasons.
The fourth, and saddest, role is that team that is for all intents and purposes mere road kill – ready to be mowed down by their vastly superior opponent. Sadly for myself and my fellow Torontonians, this team has to be the Raptors, who cannot be said to have any reasonable shot at striking fear in the first round opponent (ESPN.com’s Playoffs Predictor tool sees the Raptor’s chances of upsetting Cleveland at a mere 4%).
The fifth character on the playbill for the postseason is “Ready to Make the Next Step” team. This squad generally has been to the playoffs already, and may even have previously won a series, but they haven’t yet had the sort of impactful win that announced themselves as a team to be feared going forward. Generally this team has a great deal of expectation riding on their first and second round series, and from there transitions into the “Happy to Be Here” team.
This year’s playoffs cast has the Atlanta Hawks ready to fill out this role in the production. The Hawks defeated Miami last year in the first round, however it took them seven games where most thought they were far more talented than a Heat team that relied almost exclusively on the greatness of Dwyane Wade. They then proceeded to get thumped by Cleveland, showing the basketball world that they were not yet among the game’s elite squads. This year will be different though: the Hawks have proven throughout the season that they are worthy opponents for the league’s highest nobility and, poised to make the next step forward as an organization, they will not be backing down so easily should they run into Cleveland or Orlando. Expect a dogfight whoever they draw in the second round.
Thus ends our look at the cast of character archetypes we can expect to cross our stage in the postseason ahead. While there are more character models and standard players involved in the drama we are preparing for, this list should serve as your most basic primer for who we will be seeing.


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May 12, 2010 » 11:47 AM »