Playoff Predictions

April 18, 2008

While thinking of ways to cover the NBA playoffs, inspiration struck – why not send out a mass email to my basketball contacts and get their thoughts on the upcoming postseason? The plan worked to perfection and I received feedback from more than 20 writers, spanning over 100 emails, all of which contributed to the creation of this post. I’m grateful to all the writers who participated in this by providing me with some great answers to the questions I sent out.

For this Playoff Predictions posts you’ll see responses from:

Brian Windhorst from ESPN.com and the Akron Beacon-Journal
Matt de la Pena who is the author of Ball Don’t Lie
Bill Woten who is the author of Game 7: Inside The NBA’s Ultimate Showdown
Brian McCormick who is the author of The Cross Over Movement
Alejandro de los Rios from ESPN The Magazine and Best of New Orleans
Marcel Mutoni from Slam Magazine and AOL Fanhouse
Holly MacKenzie from Slam Magazine
Michael Tillery from Slam Magazine and The Starting Five
Jeff Wong from The Score
D.K. Wilson from Sports on My Mind
Alex Labidou from Newsday and Vibe
Matt from Deadspin and Basketbawful
Franchise from Raptors HQ
Justin Poulin from Celtics Stuff Live
Nels from Give Me The Rock
Hoopsvine

Dave Kelsey from TWolves Blog
Howie from NBA Basketball And Other Unrelatedness
Dennis Velasco from ProBasketball.About.com
Atma Brother #1 from Golden State of Mind
Jason Gurney from BallHype
George Washington III from Bobcats Bonfire

Because of the strong feedback and amazing responses to the questions I emailed out to everyone I elected to not break the results down into boring data and graphs and instead decided a quick tally for each question and include a couple responses that I thought readers would enjoy.

Now, let’s get on with the good stuff…

Everyone is enamoured with the Western Conference. What’s one aspect about the Eastern Conference that you’re going to follow during the playoffs?

Boston (9)
Cleveland (9)
Detroit (7)
Washington (7)
Kevin Garnett (2)
Toronto (2)
Philadelphia (2)
Dwight Howard (1)
DeShawn Stevenson guarding LeBron James (1)
Hubie Brown (1)

“I’m a west coast guy, so I’m backing the Western Conference, but… I’m curious about the seemingly inevitable Celtics-Pistons clash. I really love KG’s passion, Ray Allen can shoot, the Pistons play the right way and Joe Dumars does a great job plugging in role players and solid young guys. I’m very interested in how this will play out.” Matt de la Pena“Along with everyone else, I’m curious to see how far the Celtics can go. And this is stricly due to KG. Kevin Garnett, along with Allen Iverson, is one of those transcendent athletes that no reasonable sports fan would be upset if they won a title.” Marcel Mutoni

“There are actually quite a few but in particular I’m interested in the undercards. Now that Arenas is back, can Washington make a run? Can Philly put a scare in a few teams? And of course Toronto. Can they get it together from a lower seed than they probably should have obtained?” Raptors HQ

“The only true ‘team’ I’ve personally seen in the West is San Antonio–not saying there aren’t other close teams. I love the genuine camaraderie showcased with Boston, Orlando, Philly and Detroit. You can feel how close these teams are in the warm ups. If you ever get a chance, check out Adonal Foyle of the Magic pre-game. He’s a showman who gets the kids in the front rows involved with unexpected bounce passes and the kids love it. We all know about Rasheed with his left handed threes from the corner and his ball tricks pre-game as well. It sets the tone for a nice atmosphere.” Michael Tillery

“I want to see the Cleveland trade in action during the playoffs. They’ve had plenty of time to gel during the regular season. The true value of the trade, though, will be made known when the Cavaliers play Washington.” D.K. Wilson

“First, you have to look at the 4-5 match-up of a healthy Wizards against a so-so Cavaliers team. Especially since it has become a sniping war between Gilbert Arenas/DeShawn Stevenson and LeBron James. This looks to have all the makings of a chippy, personal series. But the overall theme of the Eastern Conference playoffs has got to be if Boston can make it to the conference finals and get past the Pistons. The Detroit advantage of team experience versus the intensity of Kevin Garnett, and both teams’ lockdown defense will make for a rough but entertaining series. I really don’t see anyone getting in the way of these two squads making it to the conference finals.” George Washington III
“First off, while most people are justifiably enamoured with the West like they’re Scotty J. and the Western Conference is a stick swinging Dirk Diggler, let’s not forget that the top two teams in the Association belong in the East – the Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons. And both have winning records versus the West. That said, what I’ll be watching for is whether or not LeBron James can do it again, meaning putting every single person on the Cleveland Cavaliers roster, including Ben Wallace’s afro and Anderson Varejao mess, on his back and go deep into the playoffs. The guy is an amazing player, especially considering his age. If he can carry his dung heap of a supporting cast all the way to the NBA Finals again, not only will I continue to sing his praises, I’ll even start a church organization and name it Lebronology, stupid video of me talking about the church ala Tom Cruise included!” Dennis Velasco

“I hate Lebron James. I hate Cleveland. I hate that Lebron somehow psyched out Gilbert Arenas two years ago when he missed those free throws. I hate how Cleveland rolled over a Gilbert and Caron Butler-less Wizards on the way to the finals last year. I hate that those injuries made everyone forget that the Wizards were No. 1 in the East at the All-Star break last year. I hate that nobody talks about the Wizards as a legitimate threat in the East even though they’re the only team that beat the Celtics three times this season. Most of all, I hate cheering teams that are only good enough to get to the playoffs just to lose in an ultimately meaningless first-round matchup. I think the Wizards can at least make the Conference Finals. I hate myself for thinking that.” Alejandro de los Rios

“Hubie Brown calling the games. And maybe seeing Sheed and Garnett tangle. But Hubie is why I’m tuning in, the man can call the seconds off the clock and I’ll still be pumped” – Howie “The Hype”

“Did Cleveland’s trade have any value? When it was announced, I thought the Cavs were going to be a much better team but they havent gelled in the way I thought they would. Too many missed layins by Big Ben and not enough mid range shots from Delonte West and Wally Z. The strange thing is, as a Knicks fan, I’ve seen how some trades can look fruitful in the playoffs (think ’99 finals). I’ve also seen how trades can completely destroy a team (think every move Isiah Thomas has done).” Alex Labidou

What lower seed in either conference has the best chance of pulling off an upset in the first round?

Dallas (8)
Phoenix (8)
Washington (8)
Denver (4)
Toronto (2)

“In the East I would not be shocked if Washington beat Cleveland in the first round. LeBron James is obviously amazing, and can win a series by himself, but his team has taken several steps backwards this season. Plus, the Wizards have played so well this season without their top scorer, and they just seem destined to win a Playoff series. Out West, Dallas could shock the world this spring. With Dirk playing the best ball of his career – yes, he’s even better than he was last year during his controversial MVP season – the Mavs could pull off an upset. I don’t see why they couldn’t beat an inexperienced team like the Hornets in a long series.” Marcel Mutoni

“This may be going against the grain of popularity here, but I’m going to say the Dallas Mavericks will topple the New Orleans Hornets. Sure, I do think by the end of this series Jason Kidd will be putting in his application to the government to get the Six Million Dollar Man treatment on his ankles, but despite Chris Paul being able to penetrate and drive at will on Kidd, I think there’s a huge enough chip on Dirk Nowitzki’s shoulder to elevate the Mavs past the Hornets.” Dennis Velasco

“In the East, the Toronto Raptors over Orlando and the Washington Wizards over Cleveland. In the West, if things stay as they are, man you could almost pick any lower seed to win! But seriously, Dallas could defeat New Orleans, Phoenix can upset San Antonio.” D.K. Wilson

“Phoenix! As a 6-seed, they’re currently projected to reach the Western Conference Finals according to our playoffs contest, and they’re also the team that I think people would most want to see advance past their first round opponent.” Jason Gurney

“If anyone, it’s going to be Phoenix. We know it’s a Battle Royale whenever the Lakers and Suns meet, but this time, the bad blood will be boiling over. I’m not sure that Shaq, Nash and Co. can pull it off, but I think they have a better chance than any of the other lower seeds.” – Nels

“Phoenix has a great shot in the West against the suddenly mortal San Antonio Spurs. There are a lot of questions for the Spurs heading into the postseason – the health of Manu Giniboli, Robert Horry is hurt, Brent Barry has attempted less than 10 shots in the last three months and Michael Finley is reaching the end of a solid career. Do we need to even mention the total ineffectiveness of Damon Stoudamire? The Spurs will have trouble scoring if Manu can’t play and that’s one thing the Suns have no issues with – putting up points. Dallas has a very strong chance against New Orleans. The underdog role might help inspire the Mavs. The issue of playoff experience is also big, with Dirk Nowitzki already leading them to a NBA finals appearance. Add in Jason Kidd who made two treks with New Jersey earlier this decade and experience could be the deciding factor.” Hoopsvine

Last spring LeBron James used Cleveland’s run to the playoffs to cement his status as one of the NBA’s top young players. Who do you think will grab the limelight this spring?

Chris Paul (10)
Dwight Howard (5)
Amare Stoudemire (2)
Deron Williams (2)
Andre Igoudala (2)
Rajon Rondo (2)
David West (1)

“This has been a coming out year for Chris Paul, I think he has a chance to lead a postseason run. The telling thing for him will be whether he can execute and lead when the pressure is on. He is best at setting up teammates, but who will deliver when the season is on the line?” – Brian Windhorst

“The talent level in the league today is so high that any number of guys could have a historic postseason run. I fully expect Garnett, Bryant, James and Iverson to have memorable springs. The one guy I’m especially excited to watch is Amare Stoudemire. He’s made an amazing recovery from microfracture knee surgery, and he’s back to being the world-changing beast he became during the 2005 Playoffs. I feel sorry for the power forwards that will have to deal with him over the next two months.” Marcel Mutoni

“Chris Paul? But everyone already has his name tattooed all over their bodies so it wouldn’t be a surprise either way.” Howie

“The entire Atlanta Hawks team can grab the spotlight by providing a legitimate challenge to Boston on the first round. Conversely in that series, we’ll get to see just how far the Celtics young point guard, Rajon Rondo, has progressed. Andre Iguodala is another player worth watching in Philadelphia’s first round series against Detroit. The “other AI” can show just how far he’s come as a player and a leader of the young 76ers. In the Western Conference it will be interesting to watch how the players around Kobe Bryant, including a healthy Lamar Odom, react to the heightened intensity of playoff basketball.” D.K. Wilson

“Kobe Bryant smells blood, and he’s going to try to put his stamp on these playoffs. Which might not be good for L.A., since the Lakers seem to perform better when he pulls back his game and defers to his teammates (until crunchtime, of course). You know, honestly, the teams that I think have the best chance of winning the title — Boston, Detroit, L.A., Phoenix — won’t win with dominating individual performances. So I really don’t think we’ll see another LeBron-esque, one-man-team type of performance this year. Although if Kobe doesn’t win the regular season MVP award, he might go crazy and try to average 40 or 50 over the course of a series (think Michael Jordan in the first round of the ’97 playoffs).” Deadspin

“I would argue that LeBron James had already cemented that status, but he certainly had a special postseason run. Among young players that not many people knew about, I think the 2007 playoffs were about Deron Williams. This year, the entire hoop world will be introduced to Chris Paul – and maybe Andre Iguodala, if the 76ers could somehow steal a game or two from the Pistons.” Bill Woten

“Rajon Rondo has been fantastic for the Celtics all season, but because of the big three a lot of his game has been overlooked. Look for him to continue his solid play in the postseason and lead the Celtics far.” Holly MacKenzie

“That is so hard to say. Last year, I remember everyone talking about how Lebron and the Cavs were probably the weakest team in the playoffs. I’m going to bank on history repeating itself, in a sense. My choice this year is Chris Paul/David West. All season, everyone has doubted the Hornets and speculated as to how West and Paul will react to the playoff atmosphere. I say a trip to the Conference Finals — at the very least.” Alejandro de los Rios

Most basketball fans and writers are conceding that a Western Conference team will hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy this season. Can Boston or Detroit win a championship this season? If so, what will it take for an Eastern Conference team to “upset” a Western Conference team in The Finals?

“Whoa. First off, I think those fans and writers are dead wrong. The Celtics are the best team in the league, and they have been all season. They’re 25-5 against the West, and that includes season sweeps of Dallas, Houston, L.A. and San Antonio. There’s no question they can beat anybody. And when you consider the fact that they rank first in most of the major defensive categories, and they’ll have homecourt advantage throughout, I would rate Boston as the team to beat this June. If there’s an upset, it’s going to be West over East, not the other way around.” Deadspin

“Well, first off, there is an excellent chance that both the Pistons and the Celtics will have better records than anyone in the West. So if one of them gets to the Finals then they will have homecourt advantage. Secondly, both Detroit and Boston are excellent defensive teams and in the playoffs defense has the most value. Certainly the West winner will likely be favored but to assume that it will not be a contest like last year would be short-sighted.” – Brian Windhorst

“I don’t think Detroit is even capable of getting to Finals to lose to the Spurs. Or, I mean, whoever comes out of the West. Boston is going to be the team from the East, and they have the only team from that conference which will have a chance against the team that will come from the West. For them to get the upset, it will take Ray Allen having nerves of steel, a chip on Paul Pierce’s shoulder, and the usual fire and desire from Garnett, but in a restrained, controlled manner. Garnett has to be (as the announcers mentioned eighty times in the Hornets game against the Warriors) in control all the time like Chris Paul.” – Nels

“I actually think both Boston and Detroit are better than any of the teams in the West, so yes, I think both could win it all. Boston just plays with this ferociousness and are so well balanced. Detroit is just a smooth-running system at both ends, much like San Antonio. I give Boston the edge though as Detroit at times gets into a “settling for jump shots” mode, especially Sheed from three. So what will it take? I think Boston’s defence will get the job done. I don’t think any team in the West, EXCEPT a healthy Lakers team, can compete with it. And with Andrew Bynum seemingly in permanent rehab, I’m not convinced.” Raptors HQ

“I think it’s silly to concede the championship to a Western Conference team. The conference is much deeper, but I don’t think that means that the teams in the conference are all superior to the Eastern Conference. In fact, I think Detroit and Boston are the best two teams in the league. Detroit had their let down last season, they will be extra motivated this season and Boston is hungry. I’m not sure any team wants it more than the Celtics right now and certainly no team in the league has had more rest heading into the playoffs. Also, the Western Conference is going to beat up on each other heading into the playoffs. I really don’t think the Celtics would be an “upset” over a Western Conference team. Boston has the best record in the NBA and has dominated Western Conference teams this season despite a three-game hiccup following the All-Star break which were KG’s first games back from the abdominal strain. However, we in New England love to play the underdog card, so by all means, continue to rank Boston third or worse on your meaningless power rankings…” Justin Poulin

“Heck, I’m not conceding that at all! I think the team that matches up best with the East teams is Phoenix – if they play defense for more than six trips up the court per quarter. Shaquille O’Neal remains the most dominant force in the NBA and I don’t see any player or combination of players stopping him on Boston, Detroit, or any other Eastern Conference team. This means Amare Stoudemire will have a field day and provides ample room for all the Suns three-point shooters. But other than Phoenix, any Western Conference team can be beaten by Boston or De Trois. We know that the NBA is a game of matchups and Boston and Detroit can match up with any of the West’s teams – other than the Suns, well O’Neal.” D.K. Wilson

“I have a completely baseless/asinine theory that, by the time the Finals roll around, any team that comes out of the West will come out battered, bloody and possibly on its last legs. Don’t get me wrong, the West is definitely the more competitive, entertaining and more talented conference. But isn’t it possible that all that grueling competition since the All-Star break will wear all the teams down, leaving whoever comes out of the East (please God let it be the Wizards) just a shell of a team to bowl over on the way to a championship?” Alejandro de los Rios

“I don’t think that’s true and I actually believe the opposite. First off of all, people have to realize just how excruciatingly difficult it has been for any Western Conference team to secure its playoff berth. Every team in the conference except for Memphis, Minnesota and Seattle, was ultra competitive and that takes a toll on anyone. By the time the best team comes out of the West, they might have like three or four injuries. The best teams of the East have been on cruise control for the past two or even three months and neither will face a competitive team in the playoffs until the second round. That’s when you’ll see a healthy KG or Chauncey Billups strike at full force.” Alex Labidou

What two teams will play in the Western Conference Finals?

Los Angeles (15)
Phoenix (10)
San Antonio (8)
Utah (4)
New Orleans (3)

What two teams will play in the Eastern Conference Finals?

Boston (20)
Detroit (19)
Cleveland (2)
Orlando (2)
Washington (1)

What team will be crowned NBA Champs?

Boston (11)
Phoenix (4)
Los Angeles (4)
San Antonio (3)
Detroit (2)
Washington (1)

“The Boston Celtics (over the Suns). Ryan asked that I include my silly superstitious comment in a previous e-mail so here it is, “I turn 33 (Larry Bird) today [April 17] (Our Next Championship). You see, I was born 4 (for) 17. How’s that for nonsense?! It’s special year, I can feel it.” Justin Poulin

“As I said before, at the moment I would not bet against the Spurs in any series.” – Brian Windhorst

“Celtics or Lakers. Isn’t that what Stern wants?” – Brian McCormick

“Unfortunately for the NBA, and everyone outside of San Antonio, it will be the Spurs.” – Nels

“In one of the greatest NBA Finals in history, Kevin Garnett’s Celtics will defeat Kobe Bryant’s Lakers in seven games.” Marcel Mutoni



4 Comments on “Playoff Predictions”.

  • [...] trusty all winning, all sexy playoff picks for the 2008 NBA Playoffs, as decided by randomly pitting one team’s merchandise versus another. [...]

    April 18, 2008 » 10:00 AM »

  • [...] over at HoopsAddict scared up a pretty good selection of bloggers (and others) to give their predictions for the playoffs. I only say it’s a pretty good selection because I got some quotes in there. But, if [...]

    April 18, 2008 » 2:24 PM »

  • My full slate of 1st round selections is now available. Drop by for a visit and provide your feedback.

    Thanks, in advance.

    April 19, 2008 » 6:10 AM »

  • Some very interesting games so far to kick off the 1st Round.

    The number of NBA observers who picked the Suns to upset the Spurs … primarily because of Phoenix’s 3-1 regular season edge over San Antonio is intriguing … when you consider just how good the Spurs are if their team is healthy.

    LA, San Antonio, Boston & Detroit are the best ‘Top 4′ teams the NBA has seen in many, many moons … and are going to produce some of the best playoff basketball in the history of this League.

    April 20, 2008 » 11:02 PM »

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