Last season I spoke very strongly in favor of Kevin Durant being drafted first overall. Portland had Zach Randolph in the middle and, at the time, the team had no strong options on the wings. When they traded Randolph to draft Greg Oden, I shrugged it off because you can’t go wrong with a guy like Oden. A big like him is a safer bet, usually, even though Durant’s ceiling is higher.

This year, the draft debate is even tougher to call. Derrick Rose, a player who will be an instant floor general and high-level contributor, or Michael Beasley, super-Durant. The arguments for both players were fair, but the NBA’s draft lottery should have cleared things up.

It should have. Instead, the question looms even larger over the heads of John Paxson and the Chicago Bulls – Rose or Beasley?

Like last season, I have a strong opinion about who should go number one, almost regardless of what team got the pick. Derrick Rose is going to be a top-flight guard in the NBA, a league in which it is becoming increasingly important to have strong (and young, apparently) guard play. Rose should contribute immediately to a good or bad team, will make players around him better, and has unlimited upside as a scorer, playmaker and shut-down defender.

I understand that Beasley is a freak of nature and it seems strange for me to think he should go second after being so pro-Durant last season, but Beasley is someone for who there is no real comparison, no benchmark. Beasley could very well be an immediate 20-and-10 threat, or he could take a few years to develop the strength and body control to be an effective power forward. Speaking of power forward, is Beasley a 3 or a 4? These are issues some teams don’t have the luxury of waiting around to find out, especially the Bulls.

The Bulls are a shining example of why it’s not always a good thing to have perennial potential. With loads of upside for half a decade, the Bulls haven’t really produced much yet. The core of Kirk Hinrich, Chris Duhon, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Thabo Sefolosha, Andres Nocioni, Tyrus Thomas, and Joakim Noah seemed surreal as they put it together, but it was only this past season that the Bulls realized that young core has some serious holes (inside scoring, consistent shooting, experience and leadership).

The other problem comes when all of these good, young players come looking for good, young player money. Deng and Gordon are both restricted free agents this offseason and could really run up the Bulls’ cap total. Though the Bulls have cap space this season and could theoretically sign them both back, they run the risk of having a Hinrich-Deng-Gordon trio tied up for between $25 million and $30 million per year. It’s never a problem to bring players to Chicago, but with ownership’s reluctance to even sniff the luxury tax, any bad contracts seriously handcuff this team. Obviously, then, a cheap and controllable first overall pick was perfect for this team.

On one hand, Beasley will give them the low post scoring that they’ve needed for some time and will allow them to run a high-tempo offense with Noah manning center. Additionally, Beasley is a fiery competitor and could be a Garnett in the making in that regard. Beasley is a great choice.

Rose is the better choice, though. Hinrich doesn’t appear to be a top-tier point guard, though he is an efficient scorer and a decent playmaker. Derrick Rose is a huge upgrade, and the two could potentially even play together. Rose is also a Chicago native and will therefore have the immediate patience and love of the harsh Chicago crowd.

The decision making for the Bulls is simple: Beasley is a fit regardless, and if Deng commands too high a price, they can safely let him go and stay well under the cap for three more seasons to add another piece to the puzzle. It makes sense – great fiscal and roster management, I get it.

It doesn’t change the fact that Rose will be the better player and a franchise point guard. He could replace Gordon inexpensively like Beasley could Deng, making the financial aspect a wash. More importantly, with the glut of combo-forwards the Bulls have and a roster that seems best suited to go small, adding a top-five point guard seems, to me, like a can’t-miss idea.

The Bulls, like Portland from last year, can’t really make a bad choice, but they still run the risk of making the wrong one.

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